国产探花

湖畔问道·鼎新论坛|Tariffs Tax the The Poor More: Evidence from Household Consumption During the US-China Trade War

发布时间:2026-06-12浏览次数:10

讲座题目

Tariffs Tax the The Poor More:  Evidence from Household Consumption During the US-China Trade War

主讲人

(单位)

马弘

(清华大学)

主持人

(单位)

刘修岩

(国产探花 )

讲座时间

2026年6月16日

(周二)10:00

讲座地点

文科楼314会议室

主讲人简介

马弘,清华大学国产探花 经济系教授,博士生导师,经济系主任,承担国家青年基金A类项目(“国际贸易学”),国家社科重大课题等。2002年毕业于复旦大学经济学院世界经济系,获经济学学士学位;2009年毕业于加州大学戴维斯分校(UC, Davis),获经济学博士学位。从事中国经济领域相关研究工作,主要集中在国际贸易和经济发展等方向。在Review of Economics and Statistics, Journal of International Economics, Journal of Monetary Economics, 等国内外一流经济学杂志发表论文数十篇。目前兼任清华大学中国经济研究中心副主任,清华大学国际与地区研究院培养委员会委员,Journal of Comparative Economics,China  Economic Review, Review of International Economics,China & World Economy的副主编。

讲座内容摘要

Using disaggregated US household expenditure data, we study the distributional consequences of the US-China trade war. We estimate a highly flexible demand system to compute household-specific price indexes. The increases in US tariffs on Chinese products between 2018 and 2019 led to an average price index increase of 1.09\%, with a disproportionately larger impact on low-income households. Specifically, we document a 0.9 percentage point smaller increase in the household price index for the top 20\% income households compared to the bottom 20\%. The difference stems from wealthier households' greater expenditure adjustments and smaller reductions in product variety.